SCENARIO MANAGEMENT FOR ROBUST DECISION MAKING
Complementing traditional what-if scenarios with a structured approach
Models are often applied to understand the long term impacts of different water management policies or the different ways of operating water infrastructure, and are very helpful in predicting impacts related to a certain development scenario. MIKE PLANNING takes it one step further by introducing ‘Performance Indicators’. These indicators give quantitative measures of how well a certain scenario meets different management objectives, such as hydropower production, flood protection and environmental suitability.
MIKE PLANNING helps you work with your model scenarios and allows you to define the performance indicators for selecting the most appropriate scenario. You can compare scenarios directly using the indicators or use MIKE PLANNING tools such as Multi-Criteria-Analysis (MCA) or Cost-Benefit-Analysis (CBA) to add objectivity and transparency to your scenario analysis process.
- MIKE PLANNING presents complex model results as key decision indicators – MIKE PLANNING comes with a set of pre-defined indicators which you can easily associate with your scenario outputs. Indicators can express system performance, for example, in terms of total power production, total agricultural productions, flood protection feasibility or environmental feasibility. You may also add your own indicators using the built-in Python scripting capabilities in MIKE PLANNING.
- MIKE PLANNING adds objectivity and transparency to decisions – with the Multi-Criteria-Analysis (MCA) component, you can use your indicators to create multiple decision criteria. Different partners and stakeholders may associated different weights to the different criteria and use MCA as a stakeholder negotiation tool. It also allows you to understand the trade-offs related to selecting a certain scenario over another.
- MIKE PLANNING considers costs-and-benefits – with the Cost-Benefit-Analysis (CBA) component, you can define your cost and benefit streams. Some may be calculated based on model outputs such as simulated power production while some may be entered manually for a particular scenario, for instance, the costs of creating a new dam. The CBA component helps you understand the relationship between your cost and benefit streams and how investments may be recovered over time for different operational scenarios.
- MIKE PLANNING helps you find the best solutions – with the ‘Optimisation’ component, you can optimise the operations of water allocation or distribution system by considering multiple different and competing objectives. The optimisation library contains a suite of different optimisation algorithms that deals with both single- and multi-objective optimisation.